Strategic Analysis of Terrorism in India

Introduction

I want to understand the strategic significance of terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Below is a small analysis of my own on the geo-political angles of terrorism emanating from Pakistan

Lets start from where this terrorism began. We have two seperate problems that seemed to have merged into one now.

1. India- Pakistan animosity manifested in Kashmir
2. Afghan Problem

India-Pakistan Anomisity in Kashmir

I dont think I need to elaborate on the origins of the problem. But the problem burst into the seams in late 80's and early 90's when pakistan started supporting Kashmiri fighters against Indian armed forces in Kashmir. Initially groups such as JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front) were at the fore front of the fight. Pakistan through the ISI sponsored terrorist activities inside Kashmir and used JKLF to fight their war in Kashmir. This was the first phase of terrorist activities inside India . Kashmir burned for the entire decade with a very high human tool on Kashmiris, but finally that phase got over sometime around 1995 when the first assembly elections were held in Kashmir after terrorism broke out there. So the Kashmiri origin of the problem lasted for some 10 years starting from 1987 - 1995.

Beyond this point terrorism in Kashmir was sustained through "cross border terrorism" with ample support from Pakistani Military. That phase of terrorism culminated into military invasion of Kargil by the Pakistani Army. India responded to Kargil vigorously and discredited Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism inside Kashmir in the international community. Pakistani Army withdrew from Kashmir and now Indian Army is well entrenched strategically to not let Pakistan Army carry out operations inside Kashmir.

Beyond 1999 (Kargil) Pakistan used another tactic. As it saw that Kashmir based terrorist like Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM), United Jihad Council (UJC) were not able to dent India's resolve to hold onto Kashmir, it started training a punjabi organization Jamat-ud Dawa and created a military wing named Laskar-e Taiyba (LET) . I must say here that I dont have enough information about the origins of LET. JuD has its headquarters in Muridke(close to Lahore, probably less than 100kms from Amritsar). Now LET is the one organization that has been the most successful in carrying out attacks against India. LET carried out several audacious attacks inside Kashmir and inside India. To list a few attacks that is credited to LET.

1. Kaluchak attack on Indian Military Family members (May 2002)
2. Kashmir Parliament Attacks (??)
3. Indian Parliament Attack (Dec 2001)
4. Red Fort Attack (Dec 2000)
5. Mumbai Commuter Train Attack (July 2006)
6. Mumbai Commando Attack (Nov 2008)

It is also believed that the recent Indian Mujahideen group had been getting material and logistical help from LET that was involved in a string of bomb blasts across Indian cities in the last 2 years.

So if we look at the progression of terrorist attack from 1985 to 2008, we can see an enlargement of terrorist activities into India with targets as down south as Bangalore. Organizations like LET seem to have a reach where they can literally order attacks inside India without any fear.

So a problem that originated with Pakistan's desire to wrest control on Kashmir has morphed into an India wide terrorist attack on all major cities inside India.

Afghan Problem

Afghan problem started with the invasion of Afghanistan by Russia in 1979. USA responded to that invasion and recruited Pakistan for that war. Pakistan's then president Jia-ul Haq worked with the Americans to throw out the Russians from Afghanistan. USA asked Pakistan's now notorious intelligence agency (ISI) to wage the war from Pakistan against Russians using Mujahideen (the holy warrior). The mujahideen fought with stinger missile and CIA money and drove Russians out of afghanistan. Now we know how afganistan became the staging ground to carry out the most audacious terrorist attack ever on Sep 11, 2001. So from 1989 - 2001, afghanistan turned into a place that was breeding and exporting terrorism throughout the world and especially directed against America.

The Pakistani ISI had deep interest in the afghani regime of the 90's. ISI having fought the cold war for America wanted Afghanistan to become its strategic backyard and use Afghanistan as an asset against India. Pakistan supported the Taliban regime that came out of the cold war. The Taliban regime was installed in Afghanistan in 1995 (notice the timing of shift from JKLF to HuM in Kashmir). It was pakistan's bad luck that Al Queda attacked America in 9/11. 9/11 brought America back into Afghanistan and this time with its own forces. Pakistan had virtually made Afghanistan its backyard and used it strategically to stage terrorist attacks inside India. Kashmiri terrorist used to get trained inside Afghanistan and got experience from the Afghan warriors. The terrorism in Kashmir got training, money and experience out of the afghan problem.

CIA provided lot of arms, money and motivation inside pakistan to wage the afghan war and all those assets, experience and money started getting pumped into Kashmir. Kashmir boiled throughout the 90's due to the assets that were developed from the afghan war.

9/11

9/11 happened and that brought America back into afghanistan. America drove away Taliban from Afghanistan. The taliban resettled themselves into FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Area) and NWFP (North West Frontier Province). Afghanistan has two major ethnic composition. Tajiks and Pashtuns. The Tajiks were mostly the Northern Alliance People such as Ahmed Shah Masood. The Pashtuns were the taliban who ruled over afghanistan from 1995 - 2001 and headed by Mullah Omar. The majority in Afghanistan are Pashtuns and they live in both side of the Durand Line , the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the taliban were driven away from afghanistan, the Hamid Karzai government was elected. Hamid Karzai is a friend of India but with minimal power inside Afghanistan.

Now the Al queda elements that settled inside Pakistan were mostly of Arab Origin. When Pervez Musharraf did the famous turn around after 9/11, he actually turned around against the Arab origin terrorist (mostly Al Queda). As Al Queda did not serve any purpose for Pakistan and indeed brought America back into the region. Pervez Musharaf and the Pakistani Army went after Arab Origin (Al Queda) terrorists and handed over a string of Al Queda leaders to America, who were lodged in Guantanamo Bay as terrorists. These terrorists were caught from both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The capture of these terrorists started from 2002 and went on till 2006. This is the period when Pakistan was the fast friend of America and President Bush and the entire world used to shower praise on Pakistan as the frontline Ally on Terrorism.

Pakistan Terrorism Problem

Till now the story is clean. Pakistani Army killing the bad guys inside its western frontier and fighting the terrorists, but the problem is pakistan's expansionist attitude. Pakistan Army reduced the pressure on the rest of the terrorist elements operating from that region, once the arab elements were eliminated. Pakistani Army/ ISI / etc/etc saw in taliban an asset that could again be used inside afghanistan. Several elements in the Pakistani establisment still believe that Americans will leave the region in near future and then the pashtun asset (Taliban) can again be used to recreate the strategic space that Pakistan enjoyed during the 90's. The prominent person who heads this thought is Hamid Gul (Former DG ISI, chief of ISI). Pervez Musharaf also intially believed in this theory but had to give up due to American Pressure on the issue. He ordered several military expedition inside the western frontier against the taliban. There were peace deals also but nothing worked. Pakistani Army was not able to eliminate the Taliban problem. There can be several reasons for such a results. First that the Pakistan Army does not want to eliminate the taliban, as they dont see it as their problem. Indeed they want to use it as an asset. There is tremendous confusion on this front as to what is exactly happening in that front. Whether the Pakistani Army is willing to eliminate those elements but is incapable of eliminating them or whether the Army is operating under pressure from America and biding for their time to get back into Afghanistan. But the fact is that the taliban problem has not been dealt by the pakistani army.

Recently we have noticed huge uptick in terrorism strikes within Pakistan. The most famous terrorist attacks within Pakistan is the Benazir Butto Assasination and the Marriot Hotel blast. We have seen terrorist strikes in NWFP , Chitral and SWAT region in pakistan. These strikes are a blow-back of the Pakistan Army's operation against the taliban element. Several taliban element who used to work with the Pakistani establishment earlier have completely turned back on the Pakistani establishment and that is why we are seeing a huge uprise in terrorist activities inside Pakistan. The origin of terrorist and reason of terrorism inside pakistan is very different from the reason of terrorism inside india.

The Afghan problem has spilled over inside pakistan. The reason for them can be several.

1. Inability of Pakistan Army to take care of that problem with the resulting blow back
2. Rogue element inside the pakistani establisment encouraging and assisting talibani people to work against pakistani army and american army.
3. Idealogical commitment within the talibani establishment to talibanize pakistan and use pakistan as a base to wage global jihad


India Pakistan Equal Equal

After the Mumbai attack there has been a lot of talk about India and Pakistan both being a victim of terrorism and that both are in the same boat. There cannot be anything farther from truth. We have seen pakistani analysts draw parallel between Marriot hotel blast and Taj hotel attack. The origins of these two attacks cannot be more different. As Indian investigations have clearly shown that most of the terrorist originate from the punjabi province of Pakistan. The Kasab guy is from Faridkot. A place very close to the indian borders. LET carried out these attacks. LET has been a pro-establishment entity all throughout its existence. Indeed LET is seen as the operational wing of ISI (Pakistan's notorious Intelligence Agency). The entire operation of LET is in POK and Punjab. So there cannot be an equal equal over here. Pakistan and India are targetted by very different terrorist organizations with very different objectives. So I completely reject the notion that India and Pakistan are in the same boat when it comes to terrorism.

Pakistan is facing terrorism because of the military operations inside FATA, NWFP under american pressure. India is facing terrorism because the establishment within pakistan is using it as a weapon against India so extract benefits from India and ultimately annex Kashmir from India or eventually disintegrate India into several parts. The LET's stated objective is to disintegrate India and to establish an islamic caliphate.


India's Response

The source of terrorism in India is the Pakistani Army and its Intelligence Services and the expansionist attitude of the establishment of Pakistan. Kashmir and Afghanistan is just a manifestation of that attitude. The same expansionist attitude was evident during the Punjab crisis also.

The Punjab crisis was dealt firmly by the Rajiv Gandhi and Narsimha Rao Government and eliminated by conducting counter terror operations inside Pakistan. India's RAW was able to eliminate all Khalistani terrorists from Pakistan and also made it very difficult for Pakistan to continue terrorist activities inside Punjab. KPS Gill along with covert counter terror operations was able to eliminate all terrorists from Punjab in 3-4 years. India has been able to take control of terrorism in Kashmir by developing a very firm counter terror policy inside Kashmir. Any terrorist who enters Kashmir is now apprehended by human and technical intelligence and then the army with special commondo force and local police eliminate the terrorist threat. Kashmir has been relatively quiet for last 5 years and we can expect further quiet in years to come.

If india has to develop a similar strategy against LET that has morphed itself into a clone of Aqueda then India should develop counter terror operations inside Pakistan and eliminate terrorist threats such as Dawood Ibrahim, LET Chief Hafeez Saeed and JEM chief Masood Azhar. Further India should develop strong spy network inside Pakistan that would help root out terror networks inside India.

Till now India has been successful in eliminating terrorist threat from Pakistan and contain terrorist threat in Kashmir. Now it is time to adopt from the approach that was used in Kashmir and Punjab and apply throughout India to defeat these terrorist threat.